We are often handed a "Double Mandate."
  1. Business As Usual (BAU): Keep the lights on, fix bugs, and serve customers. (Non-negotiable).
  2. Strategic Change: Deliver a massive portfolio of new features in 12 months. (Also non-negotiable).
The temptation is to look at our total capacity—say, 1000 hours—and assume we can "squeeze" BAU into the cracks. We estimate that BAU accounts for an average of 20% of our time, so we plan the Change roadmap using the remaining 80%.
This sounds logical, but it is a trap. By planning on average, you are building a plan that is statistically guaranteed to fail.
Here is how to account for the BAU Tax without lying to yourself or your stakeholders.


1. The Trap: The Flaw of Averages

Dr. Sam Savage, author of The Flaw of Averages, uses a simple analogy: A military commander plans a river crossing because the average depth is 3 feet. The troops march, and they all drown in the 10-foot hole in the middle.
The same happens with BAU.
  • January: BAU is quiet (10% load).
  • February: An outage hits (60% load).
  • March: Major compliance audit (40% load).
The average BAU Tax might be 20%, but if you plan your 12-month roadmap assuming you always have 80% capacity available, the first "February" that occurs will wreck your timeline. You can never recover the lost time, because "quiet months" rarely let you work double-speed to catch up.
Rule #1: Plans based on average capacity are wrong on average.


2. The Solution: Plan with Net Velocity (P80)

To deliver a 12-month plan that holds up, you must calculate your Net Velocity—the speed at which you can deliver Change after the BAU Tax is paid—using a safety margin.
Do not use your average velocity (how many work items you deliver). Use your P80 Velocity.
What is P80 Velocity? Think of your morning commute.
  • Average Day: 30 minutes.
  • Bad Day (Rain/Traffic): 45 minutes.
If you have a job interview you absolutely cannot miss, you don't plan for the average (30 minutes); that gives you a 50% chance of being late. You plan for the "Bad Day" (45 mins) to ensure your safety.
P80 Velocity is your "Bad Day" number. It is the amount of work your team successfully delivers 80% of the time, even when things go wrong.
  • Average Net Velocity: 45 work items/month (50% chance of success).
  • P80 Net Velocity: 30 work items/month (80% chance of success).
When you build your roadmap using 30 work items, the schedule will look slower than leadership wants. But it is the truth. It accounts for inevitable server crashes, sick leave, and urgent queries.
Clarification on work item counting
When counting work items, we are explicitly counting the same type of work item.
For example, an operational activity, such as sending an email, must not be counted alongside a delivery item, such as creating a marketing campaign. These are fundamentally different work item types with distinct intents and flow behaviours.

3. Attack the Tax: Value Over Volume

Once you present the realistic P80 plan, leadership will likely say, "That’s too slow. We need to go faster."
This is where you shift the conversation from Volume (doing more) to Value (doing what matters).
The BAU Tax is often bloated with low-value work. Use the BAU Hierarchy to aggressively reduce the tax and increase your Net Velocity:
  • Tier 1 (Critical): Compliance/Security. Keep it.
  • Tier 2 (High Value): Customer Support. Optimize first. Automate it.
  • Tier 3 (Low Value): Manual Reports/Tweaks. Kill it.
By eliminating Tier 3 BAU, you might only reclaim 5% of your capacity, but that pure capacity goes straight into your Net Velocity, potentially accelerating your Change plan by 20% or more.


4. The Reality of Improvement

A warning: Do not assume your efforts to reduce the BAU Tax will work instantly. Improvement projects (like "Automating Support") are risky. They often take longer than expected to deliver savings.
When planning your 12-month horizon:
  1. Start with your P80 Net Velocity (Current State).
  2. Layer in improvements conservatively. Assume efficiency gains will arrive 2–3 months later than planned and adapt based on evidence when improvements deliver the results.
  3. Scenario Plan: Show leadership a "Likely" case and a "Safe" case.

Summary: Stop Squeezing, Start Managing

Ignoring the BAU Tax doesn't make it go away; it just guarantees you will miss your deadlines.
  • Don't plan on the average day; the "10-foot hole" is coming.
  • Do plan using your P80 Net Velocity (your "Bad Day" speed).
  • Don't just work harder; ruthlessly cut low-value BAU and ask, 'What happens if we stop this?' to buy back capacity.
The goal isn't to create a roadmap that looks green on Day 1. It is to create a roadmap that adapts and is still green on Day 365.
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